Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
